Performance Controller

Sunday October 23 1:20 PM

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekend rumors and misinformation are playing havoc on concerned Bangkok people as the Northern suburbs continue flooding. Conjecture continues as to where when and how the water will flood into other parts city. At this stage the major flooding is 8-10 kilometers north of the city center.

Panic food buying on Friday also quickly peeked as supermarkets shelves ran bare. Replenishing shelves is being hampered by flood blocks to transportation of goods.

Complacency is not an option as the biggest and most arduous battle is yet to come this week. In the waiting game for many, as the water pushes more into Bangkok, the resilience of the Thailand culture to contain it is now sharply focused. Amazing discussion being heard, as the adversity goes on, is also about starting the rebuild even before it is all over.

Reliance on TV and newspapers and asking people is not always easily interpreted. For the record while doing my own research I grabbed a few items here to refer back to later.

The Nation Newspaper Headline say

Bangkok starts flooding, city residents prepare  October 23, 2011 10:49 am

Authorities said flooding in the capital could last several weeks. Some roads in the northern Don Muang district were waterways with small boats nearly as common as motor vehicles

Bangkok Post headlines this morning are reporting

Flood toll: 356 dead, 2 missing

Flooding still wreaks havoc in 28 northern, northeastern, central and eastern provinces as the flood toll stands at 356 dead and two missing,…

Floods close 227 bank branches

A total of 227 branches of commercial banks and a finance company have been temporary closed due to impact of the widespread flooding,…

 

Bird’s Eye On The Floods  An array of photos

Jet Ski Flood Relief             Video water craft used in flood management

Army Fixes Floodgate        Video showing the non trivial water volumes to be managed

Floods now in Bangkok     Graphic photos of flood in Bangkok Suburbs

With places Like Ayutthaya to the north and closer regions of North Bangkok all now underwater and their dormitory suburbs evacuated, the contained water mass is largely protecting Bangkok, Controlled release continue in attempts to minimize damage. All options including diverting the water down pumped out canals are being managed by one authority following a state of emergency declaration yesterday by the Thai Prime Minster.

Thankfully too there has been no rain since early this week,  A major concern now is the high tide period next week that will slow water release and cause back flooding.

The composite Pictorial perspective above shows how the flood from its origins, is now impacting Bangkok. The three months of monsoon rains have continued to fill the center of the country like a tap filling a series of baths with the fill rate more than 20% more than the drain plug can cope. With the subterranean water system also fully saturated, the surface is the only place for the advancing water to be channeled.

Priority work to manage the ongoing flow from central Thailand is being focused to protect central Bangkok.

It is now very clears too that the advancing floods will take several months to subside. Only then as Thailand cleans up will the enormity of the human loss and economic damage will be clear. This disastrous blow that has stopped in its tracks the growth and prosperity that Thailand had was experiencing that others in the world were not.

This morning the flooding is advancing on Bangkok as many tactical defense plans continue

The Nation this morning reported

The government remains fixated on saving inner Bangkok – Its latest decision is to divert the relentless floodwaters down the eastern side of the city, from Sai Mai district to Bang Khen and Nong Chok.

In other news it was revealed the Government is to open Khong 1-7 water to speed up the water flow into the sea. Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Yongyudth Vichaidit  was reported by the Nation as saying he was assigned to talk to the communities  effected and there was no need to use force or legal means as the people now understand.

About the inadequate water pumps to help in the rescue, Mr Yongyuth said that the government has requested China and United States to urgently ship them to Thailand.

Mr Yongyuth insisted that there is still time to protect Bangkok and that BMA governor MR Sukhumphan Boribhat gives total cooperation.

It seems having a good personal plan plan is most important too. I got this message from a work colleague just now .

I’ll cannot go to office today because the village put up a very high sand partition and we cannot drive our car out now. I am now quite worried and have to stand by.

Bangkok Metropolitan here also provide some very useful reference information

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yesterday the edited interview we published showed the logistics of the advancing floods

Here is the full discussion with insights and possible lessons for those further south in the flood path who are planning and bracing.

Bangkok October 19 2011  8:00 AM

Here is an excerpt of an interview I did earlier with Dr Kitipan Kitbamroong  It paints a picture of the desperate battles still to come in this serious flood situation.

Bangkok flooding continues this morning spreading further into the city. Overnight it continued to converge dangerously fast as this funnel forced water mass is now spreading over the low lying Capital

In its path this two month buildup of monster waters from the North that has destroyed the country in its wake is grows even more and now concentrates for its final destructions as is heads for the sea

Dr Kitipan is now one of millions of victims. His home in Prutnmtani is totally underwater. I write this post his parents, who chose to stayed in their upstairs rooms in their house as the waters rose yesterday, are now being recued by boat of their rooftop with everything lost .

In his PhD work, Dr Kitipan made a study of flood water dynamics. He understands the bigger picture well and makes it very clear to many who struggle for information.

This excerpt is taken from a longer video where he gives greater insights not only at a personal level but on the fuller scale of the desperate flooding situation.

Tuesday October 18 2011 7AM

Here is a GIS map of the flooded areas which shows Bangkok now caught in the neck of the funnel. This zoomed out version shows the total  catchment with the blue areas already flooded and the red area that have already flooded or threatening today

The map zooms in on Bangkok show in  red the areas flooding  this morning as the volumes of water move from their north bound origins to the sea via the river system and low lying Bangkok area that lies in the path of the southbound wash

I just spoke to my friends, the Kitbamroong family hi are in their flood stricken homes in Prutumtani 25 kms to the North of Bangkok.

He said the waters are continuing to rise uncontrollably last night and today with little or no time for people to evacuate. Many who thought they were safe after a week of tensions and preparation were caught by surprised.

The floods discriminate with rich and poor alike effected. This morning many in poor and middle class villages are marooned or being recued from their flooded homes, And one area near a wealthy golf course residence in expensive homes there are too underwater this morning as floods rushed passed their sand bag barriers catching them by surprise too.

I have just been just told that in the Pratumthani areas the catchment containment is now passed over flow levels as the water is moving south and east again closer to Bangkok .

The Chao Pra River that weaves thru Bangkok is now full at capacity level has current draining capacity of 3.7 million liters per second with the high tide pushing back. Other rivers have much lower draining capacity.

From the top end of the catchment which is still filling a rate of 4.4 million liters per second the whole is now near full with the worse yet to come for days as funnels into  Bangkok this week is under an even greater threat of broad based flooding.

It is now all too late to contain now the break thru of levy banks and diversions as this morning more areas flooded nowonbly10KMstothenotrht of the city.This is made even worse as the balance of human pressures in those locations continues to place that under stress.

Here is a quick video we compiled last night before this update.

Here are links to the four parts of the Al Jazeera “Meltdown” series.

4. Meltdown: After the Fall Investigators begin to sift through the meltdown’s rubble. Shaken world leaders question the very foundations of modern capitalism while asking could it all happen again?

 

3. Meltdown: Paying the Price. In Iceland, protestors force a government to fall. In Canada, ripped off autoworkers occupy their plant. And in France, furious union members kidnap their bosses.

 

2. Meltdown: A Global Tsunami  The meltdown’s devastation ripples around the world from California to Iceland and China. Facing economic ruin, desperate world leaders are at each others throats.

 

1. Meltdown: The Men Who Crashed the World  Greed and recklessness by the titans of Wall Street triggers the largest financial crash since the Great Depression.

This series gets out in the open information to let people start to understand what was going on and the motives of those responsible for the global financial carnage we all endured and will pay for generations to come.

Accountability seems too soft a word. Not much good can be said about a flawed system that lets financial markets and property con artists unmercifully rip off gullible masses on a global scale knowing the consequences to leave the world in mess.

In my earlier post this week. The Economic Meltdown –Would you put this in the category of Oops? I referred to Nazi consequential thoughtlessness following madman leads of Hitler and Eichmann. It seems karma revisited with these reincarnations continued as bankers, property mongrels, financial gurus and influential so called world leaders.

In the final Meltdown episode, we hear about the Dubai sheikh who says the crash never happened; a Wall Street king charged with fraud; a congresswoman who wants to jail the bankers; and the world leaders who want a re-think of capitalism.

The financial crash of September 2008 brought the largest bankruptcies in world history, pushing over 30 million people into unemployment and bringing many countries to the brink of insolvency.

The 1940’s German Nazi SS war criminal Adolf Otto Eichmann is considered a psychotic butcher by history. But it is sometimes put by criminologists who look back on his day of reckoning in 1962 and fear an even more frightening scenario that he was just thoughtless.

The Holocaust body count in the millions is long over but what of the 2008 meltdown? Can we look forward to a return to prosperity soon or is there more to come? And in the day of reckoning who was to blame and was it an oversight or a criminal act?

A fantastic Al Jazeera series called Meltdown, looks at those responsible and the global conspiracies that were behind the world financial collapses of 2008,

In the first of the four part series it is clear that by time the fire alarms and tornado sirens began their deafening call, it was all too late.

In March 2008 the US Government bankrolled a Bears Stearns takeover by J P Morgan to avert time bombs of imminent default, caused by failures of toxic real estate market financial products and highly questionable banker practices.  The US  knew such a failure would trigger an unprecedented financial crisis. But this wake up call went unheeded as instead greed driven bankers took it as a message that US Banks would not be allowed to fail.

Rampant greed with deal value stacking, sub prime mortgage scams continued until the Lehman Bros, fall after the British Government refused to underwrite a US Bail out plan. Their bankruptcy at 2am on September 15, 2008 triggered the world to plunge into ongoing economic crisis with predictions in 2011 of worse to come. A depression surpassing 1929 levels that did not see prosperity until THE late 1940’S is no longer unthinkable, as we see the ultimate flight to safety with gold prices soring . 

It has been said many times since that capitalist economic systems that leverage future value are corruptible and untimely is unsustainable. Before 2008 that was laughable wasn’t it?

That so called “All American” revered value we now describe as Avarice was founded on a cultural prowess that sees the western world with a generations of debt and an irreversible shift of economic power from west to east.

The meltdown has hurt us all.  But how did all go wrong and who was responsible to let it happen?

There are versions being circulated. This Al Jazeera one on YouTube seems to work well .  

( This is the first of a four part series and I suggest may be well worth the time to watch it )

A recent documentary on the History Channel noted that nearly all of containers ships crossing the Atlantic are going back empty to China. by contrast Australia has the opposite situation where exports of raw material to China are bringing a surplus

This 2009 graphic says a lot about the current financial state of the North America with USA and Canada being consumer in large quantities of China products.   It is a endemically circular as the US companies who previously dominated manufacturing now manufacturer in China to supply their domestic markets. The 30 year transition that brought the in crisis situation left the traditional manufacturing with high and permanent unemployment. US Consumers including those on welfare have no choice to buy to imported goods until the country runs out of money.

As US companies look at ways to balance the books it is bringing opportunity that Industry leaders are spotting. The imbalance reduction, albeit slow and painful is happening with local supply culture changing too so it can compete .

Other counties watching how the pendulum moves, need to watch these dynamics as the US restore its balance of trade.

Ironically. as we still struggle to claw back the investments lost by the excesses of the so called good times, Lehman Bros sign is being auctioned at Christie’s next Wednesday in London. Collectors there will be able to bid for the plaque commemorating the opening of the Lehman Bros building in 2004 by Gordon Brown, who was then Britain’s finance minister.

There are also Lehman Brothers corporate signs, perfect for the bedroom wall of any trader who lost their job when this so called glamour bank fell of the perch and sent the world into bankruptcy in September 2008.

These are among millions of dollars’ worth of items being sold albeit now 2 years on, to help pay Lehman’s creditors. Christie’s expect to raise about ?2 million. More artworks from Lehman Brothers’ collection is being sold by Sotheby’s in New York this week.

The Lehman Bros Bank collapse was the largest bankruptcy filing in US history and triggered one of the worst financial crises since the Great Depression. which extends through to now.

This failure was triggered by a liquidity shortfall in the United States banking system driven by  by greed driven sub prime lending policies for housing that overheated the domestic economy. That in turn caused loss of confidence and credit limitation by banks the world over that resulted in the collapse of many more financial institutions, and was followed by bailouts by national governments around the world.

This contributed to the failure of key businesses, declines in consumer wealth estimated in the hundreds of trillions and a significant decline in economic activity with significant risks still remaining  for world economies into the the 2010–2012 periods.

At a micro level I find trying to make sense of all this is impossible so I need to get into the helicopter to take a loftier view. This table and the charts to the left above show economic 2009 decline and 2010 re growths occurring as at Sep 12 2010

The US CIA Word Fact book provides one of the best views around. Another example is the House of Commons Library with this  example showing comparatives GDP (purchasing power parity) that as very useful economic indicator.

With the recent political unrest in Thailand the strategic importance of this country in South East Asia and its place as a stable economic base is becoming more understood.

As this remarkable economy rebounds, there remains no doubt that indelible “power of the poor people” can no longer be ignored.

Moving around Bangkok you could be forgiven for thinking that the calamitous May 2010, period never occurred .  Remarkably too, if you can believe the statistics unemployment stands at less than 2% and is one of the lowest in the world.

Thailand, like the elsewhere has an underclass”. But compared to 12% in the U.S., 14% in Britain, 36% in Bangladesh. statistics,”officially” Thailand has an estimated 10% of population below defined poverty line levels.

Traffic jams and hubbub continue as people go about daily lives. Thai Stock markets also show undisputable positive growth and the semi-untied currency is strong and remains stable. Economic indicators for the past quarter shows growth of around 4% with predicted levels as high as 8% by the end of this year as demand for Thai products continues in spite of the local and global issues. As testament to resilience The Thai consumers’ confidence index in May rose sharply immediately after the political unrest ended. Domestic political stability and the global economy influences however still remain risks.

One has to wonder why Thailand has continued to enjoy fiscal growth and financial stability. This too is despite the current budget being fifth straight year of deficit spending, The answer perhaps lies in its world position as a consistent net exporter for decades which has built up foreign reserves, of $US138 billion, (THB 4,478 billion) and is 10th highest in the world. By comparison Britain has $US56 billion and Australia $US45 billion.

On the issue of poverty, retired mainstream Asian affairs journalist Robert Woodrow recently gave some insights. In his researched paper he entitled The Down-Trodden Rural Poor of Thailand - It’s not quite what you think, it commences with a bold statement that says the Thai poor are the richest poor people in the Third World.

He warns too that even with statistics being notoriously unreliable, wealth distribution in Thailand as reported no more extreme than in most industrialized countries.

The poorest 10% of the people of Thailand own 2.6% of the nation’s wealth. The richest 10% own 33.7%.Comparable figures for the U.S., are 2% and 30%, in the U.K. 2.1% and 28.5%. These statistics may not be wholly reliable, but distribution of wealth is unquestionably much more equitable than in China, India, Brazil or South Africa

Woodrow goes on to say that Europe and North American comparisons of poor are not meaningful. Thai poor, typically the rural people, tend to live on family land rent-free, pays nothing to moderate the climate, produce their own vegetables, chickens, eggs and pork, and ride their own motor-cycle to their jobs. American lifestyle seen on TV, it’s so far beyond the range of their experience, so they don’t feel deprived.

He reports too that every village in Thailand is on the electricity grid and almost every village family has a refrigerator, electric rice-cooker, TV, radio and oscillating fans. Almost all rural households have a motorcycle, and in every villagee many families own cars and pickup trucks.

The wealthy absentee landlord is almost unknown with farming families tending a small plot of land they own outright and mortgage-free  This is due to a paternalistic law preventing unscrupulous practices of the past,  forbidding land being put up as security with money-lenders. People however can borrow on anticipated small cash crop harvests which they sell a  through a co-operative.

Main roads in Thailand are well paved and equally or close to first-world standards. And most secondary roads are surfaced, as are many tracks that lead into remote villages. Last month Thailand government announced it would borrow a further THB 270 Billion from local and the world banks to revitalize its economy. At the same time it announced the plans for THB 70 billion of this to be committed immediately from a 15 year borrowing tranche to fund Thai roads being upgraded.

This will bring the national debt to around 40% of GDP.  Tax collections, of around 15% of gross domestic product, are relatively low compared to other countries, so it does leave room for improvement to repay this. In the future that will of course also level the playing fields that presently gives Thailand investors advantage while it develops more .

But it is not only foreign investors who are benefiting from a strong Thai economy. The surrounding countries Like Myanmar Laos and Cambodia all rely heavily on Thailand to be buoyant for work and as buyers of their cheaper production. Trading partners like Australia, New Zealand and others in the APAC regions, see a strong Thai economy with it 65 million people and political stability as very important.  Other factors, such as the US determination to maintain its presence and influence in Asia, relies heavily on having strong economic and political ties with Thailand And balancing that of course Japan and now China too as with many in Europe have similar reasons to keep up their long-standing unbroken ties.So as to why things continue to rebound seems to be not only due to the fact that Thailand is still developing. It is strategically important to others.

But as the country continues its  upward economics, primarily based on its rich resources and a cheap labor force, it will continue to bring with it conflicts of power. The rebellious protests and riots in Bangkok in May 2010 seriously placed the economy and social fabric in jeopardy for nearly two months and will likely fester again if there is no acceptable change. This is a concern to many watching, as this difficult task must bring with it the much-needed harmony and reconciliation of vested interest  political agendas as social demands now accelerate with the relative prosperity.

Divisions are still clear as opposition voices claim the so-called road maps do not go far enough. Academics and civic leaders have questioned the absence of concrete plans beneath the political rhetoric. In the meantime Thai justice is still making headlines as it goes after those  responsible for the killings during the protests. This has been vigorously pursuing more arrests of perpetrators who lead the unrest. This includes ex-Prime Minister Thaksin, in exile, who will likely face terrorism charges if he sets foot in the country again.

But even in the unlikely event of present leaders disabling their political opposition who leveraged poor people to want reform, there remains little doubt that the indelible “power of the emerging poor ” can no longer be ignored with social reform now in transition.

In the aftermath of the unrest the powerful people in the political oppositions at the next elections are hell-bent to take back control of the countries riches . But whoever leads, if they cannot deliver the social change and restore harmony, it will be very hard to avoid more unrest. The longer term impact is not only in Thailand, but the region and many in global economies.

Last year with my team, we did a series of tailored seminars in Singapore Melbourne and Thailand. Each had a different local country theme. In Singapore for example we looked at future directions, in Australian we looked at maturity holding models for business and in Thailand we looked at the dichotomies of the internal and regional economic situation. That was a year ago at the time when world economies were facing big downturn issues and before the recession took its deep rooted hold.  It is now interesting to look back on what we were thinking as we are now starting to see signs of recovery.

Here is the Thailand version we recorded at Bangkok at the Sukathai Convention Center event. It looked at the economic position from a Thai perspective. We used this to make generic points about performance management and how to use it as a methodology in business everywhere.

This session was sponsored by Infor, vendors of leader performance management software, We used this software to support our discussion.

Read more…

“Our economic future is increasingly underwritten by the rise of Asia.”

It is interesting in Asia where lifestyles are good, the flow on economic slowdown has been less severe.

Something must be different?

Read more…

GM CEO Fritz Henderson is quoted as saying "bankruptcy is probable but not preferred; experts say it won’t be smooth or fast."

That is the news just in about this Giant USA Automaker struggling for its very survival.

But what is the cause of all this and how do people feel about the bailout?

To get some insights into it that question,  here is a response to a recent General Motors North America President Troy Clarke plea to GM employees and suppliers  "to call legislators and ask for a bailout for U.S. automakers"

The response letter, widely circulated in mid-December 2008, was attributed to Gregory Knox, president of Knox Machinery of Franklin, Ohio. After I got this in my email I verified the authenticity with Snopes. According to Snopes.com Mr. Knox (or, at least, someone responding from his e-mail address) said"

“I’m real….. I came into my office 2 weeks ago and the first email I opened was a pathetic plea from Detroit…and my fingers just started flying across the keyboard..

The letter was a "spleen vent" which just quickly flowed out of me, and when I was finished I copied my mom and hit the send button…and she asked me if she could share it with her friends…and the rest is history"

As my colleague said too "it is worth reading". I will add no further comment and just let it it speak for itself.

Ralph Eastman

Read more…

I saw Roland Chessman’s post last week Would you follow the money? In this he points out the US reticence to ratifying Kyoto. But it seems US President Obama has other Ideas. But Roland did not mention Obama’s election platform was to reduce greenhouse gases by 80%  by 2050. Ratified or not Kyoto aims are not even that strong

Here is an article today in entitled “US Climate Czar: CO2 Regulation Ruling To Come Soon” In this it reproduces a Dow Jones Newswire story, which  says 

President Barack Obama’s climate czar said on Sunday the Environmental Protection Agency will soon issue a rule on the regulation of carbon dioxide, finding that it represents a danger to the public. The White House is pressing Congress to draft and pass legislation that would cut greenhouse gases by 80% of 1990 levels by 2050, threatening to use authority under the Clean Air Act if legislators don’t move fast enough or create strong enough provisions.

Carol Browner, Obama’s special advisor on climate change and energy, also said the administration is seeking to establish a national standard for auto emissions that could mean tougher efficiency mandates for auto makers. The new standard could be fashioned after strict proposals developed in California that would limit greenhouse gas emissions – initiatives that car makers have vigorously fought.

The comments – the first by the administration on the topic – could lead to another blow for beleaguered car companies such as General Motors and Ford that are already tottering.

Industry fears it could shut down the economy, not only preventing plants from operating and spurring a dramatic retooling of the energy sector but also pushing up costs and hurting the international competitiveness for a raft of sectors. Environmentalists, meanwhile, say action by the administration is required by law and need to pressure lawmakers to act.

Looking at the debate from another perspective. It seems not everyone including many scentific communites are aligned on the premise itself that Global warming is man made. It  is asserted that 94% of the carbon in the atmosphere has the same isotopic signature as the natural background. 6% is of an organic origin, fossil fuels included. Half of that organic source, 3% is what the IPCC itself says man is contributing.

This chart sourced from Anthony Watt’s who leads an excellent forum on scientific fact and opinion  to understand climate issues in “Watt’s up with that This chart is included in his “The madness is about to begin” post.

I wonder what Al Gore is thinking this morning? He would be breaking out the chapagne for sure. And the US car makers I imagine will now be booking tickets to visit China to find out how they and the rest of the world are already making green efficent cars.

But all that aside, what does all this mean for business? Regardless of the vested interests, who Roland says don’t want to retool or invest in alternatives and continue fight for more mileage on setups they control,  it seems is is all going to happen. The money will be spent and the climate will be changed. Albeit some would have it only adversely on  economic climate.

So with Executive power about to be exercised on a “no turning back platform” to delver on,  it seems the debate is resolved and we will cut emmisions regardles. The the impetus to clean up the planet with the US now leading must be a good thing from many other perspectives too and business and economies involved in the energy to do this will surely benefit.

I am interested in what others think too.

You guys asked me for some comments so I thought I would just do a post instead. I stated with a newspaper read to see what was interesting.  I also know I am cynical about all politics so there is always plenty to scoff at there. But I have to admit Hillary Clinton impressed me today with her visit to China.  On last leg of her Secretary of State to Asia she braved it and went to Beijing. 

I started reading about it in CNN (Feb 21) but all the papers I have checked say this is her most crucial stop-over in her Asia trip. And it signals the new US administration’s first attempts to lay a foundation towards a China policy. Well I think she may have got away with it even though she should know you cannot beat the Chinese at Chinese checkers especially in China.

One clever ploy was her tactical plan. I heard that BBC TV tonight showed Hillary’s first port of call there was a state of the art power station, near Beijing that incidentally uses American technology and is one of the world’s lowest carbon emission sites.On her agenda amongst many things was getting the climate change on the table.

It is also interesting that the US and China are the highest polluters on the planet according greenhouse emission measurements. I just checked the Kyoto agreement between majority of nations which is all about emission reductions. This is a chart I found on Wikipedia that was updated this month on Feb 9 showing those who have ratified it. My Aussie mates would be pleased to see they are now green but look who is still, red. Yes the US.

Green are countries that have signed and ratified the Kyoto treaty, yellow (Kazakhstan) have signed, but not yet ratified, grey is not yet decided including the Vatican city who are an observer as I am sure they don’t make much smoke even when pope dies and red is signed but with no intention of ratifying.

The Bush Administration’s position in 2005 at Montreal when commenting on US Kyoto ratification was to make a statement that global warming is a problem that either will solve itself or won’t. Wow I mss that man already don’t you?  China, incidentally signed.

I wonder how Hilary handled that one.  But I also understand from my AGW mates that China in substance is still a very reluctant player and I would be sure Hillary knows that too.  I have also heard it said that Chinese business leaders say “Why should we bust our butts to fix our Smokey factories, when the US, who made all the mess in the first place, has not even joined in Kyoto”. They do have a point there, I must admit.

But behind the scenes I have also heard it said they think it is now their turn to make some money, after the US has been cleaning up for 200 years and more. Don’t forget Hilary Chinese don’t only run laundries’ and cook great food. They were actually there at the gold rushes in the 1800′s in Australia and Yukon in Canada and often found gold  first.  I also remember story a good old story about  of a family trying to figure out why their Chinese workers were stealing their house brick by brick. They then realized they were made from alluvial sand from the creek-beds in the gold fields.

So they Chinese know about money and culture and have been studying the US closely since 1421, The Year China Discovered America

I suspect too, even with good intentions of the now more environmentally benevolent China Government, may be still quite hampered. Maybe the 23 provinces and thousand add communes who have representation in that big house in Tiananmen square have ideas to make hay while the sun shines and are have been continuing to build coal fired plants at rates of one and two a month.

Is it any wonder Chinalco want to buy RTZ from the Aussies. Incidentally I heard today, for you guys silly enough to still have RTZ shares, that is not a done deal. RTZ it seems are thinking again and looking for a white night. And guess who they are talking to, Yes, you got it, good old BHP, their old foes have now become best mates. I guess one of them RTZ or BHP Billiton have a good CFO now who can see how to balance the books without selling off the farm.

But back to Hillary. I know she is smart as she knows throwing stones from her glass house is foolishness The US has an a terrible track record in the free enterprise community for not doing anything that does not make a buck. But she can perhaps fall back on the folly of the power and greed model that could happen to China now. Maybe they will fall for that one.

But more power to her that she knows the new administration does not apply those rules to the US anymore with their continued leadership role, determined to live by the human rights baaed on champions for free enterprise. Let’s face it, it may be worth practicing now as they have nothing left to lose.

Even so it seems old habit will die hard as anything that may mean spending a buck on re-jigging perfectly good carbon pollutant gear is still untouchable and is exempt from that ethic. Hence I suspect the US  stated intent for Kyoto non ratification with prevail. Things like the valuable Auto industry is one example that of course would have suffered with emission control and would have gone broke. Lucky for them eh?

So the US independent free enterprise policy in the face of the rest of the jerks  in the world who care and who signed up will now have to wait. For our economies to return we need a  U Turn in policies of the US power brokers. I suspect if it is not going their way regardless of cost they will hamper Obama to stall things as long as possible to hold the line against a China dominance, while they look for other ways to clean up the shambles.I may be too harsh. Obama is not putting up with any crap in his  first 100 days, so perhaps I will give him a break.

Perhaps I have digressed a touch? My praise remains for the Secretary  of Sate Lady’s negotiating ability remains. Anyone who can outmaneuver a powerful like  man her husband Bill when he got him out of bother when he fibbed about playing hide the sausage around at the water cooler is worth a shot. Of course I am referring to the time Hillary nailed him for telling fibs and he took the offensive saying “Just count your lucky stars that you didn’t marry that gas pump attendant over there as you have not have been the First Lady.” To which it is reported she replied, “Bill, if I married that gas pump attendant over there. he would be President”.

And now like the last time in Asia unarmed and alone she is again is braving the dangers to go meet the Chinese President Hu Jintao to agree a framework for further discussions. And for the cynics you may be forgiven for thinking that her visit to the power plant was to signal to China President to buy US technology to cement US relations to continue to cooperate to buy Chinese product. Good one H.

But I have to admit the US does need something to bargain with as the global warming debate is good to go now regardless of Kyoto. And to his credit Hillary’s new offsider at home, President Obama,who  has announced plans to spend up big on emissions control initiatives so at least, as bargaining chip if you will forgive me the pun, she can used it to create some smoke and sell some new products back to the Chinese.

But as was pointed out by the China Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi the two economies are clearly so intertwined that resolving any differences will depend on co-operation. For example Yang said that China is the world’s top holder of U.S. debt. Nice one Yang. And too show his good intentions he added China had swapped its US dollars for U.S. treasury bonds to ensure liquidity and security in its dealings. If I got that right it is very noble, but I wonder if he had some other idea about negotiating power and keeping the greenback cache for a cold and sleet filled day like today at now below 0 degrees C.

It was also reported at the meetings that China-U.S. trade volume rose by 10.5 percent in 2008 to $333.7 billion. Now all that gives them some serious negotiating clout you have to admit. Go somewhere else if you can. But the sting in the tail is it is not so easy boys and girls of the good old US Of A. You will have need pay of the credit card off first.

So the Rhetoric begins. It is now being reported in the press about the meetings acknowledging the economic front is of such high importance with a need for working in cooperation. And US-Sino relations issues on the other hand must take a back seat as the economies are now so intertwined. Never mind there are some serious gaps yet to field. Human rights and especially Tibet is not such a big one. Who cares about few mountain dwellers anyway? Mind you Buddha does have some influence in Asia and Tibet has a big guy there that carries some weight with him.

But the two big hard nuts to crack are the US alignment on long time r China sore, Taiwan and and the US standoff position with North Korea. which also happens to be one of China’s largest trading partners. Incidentally Clinton was reported to have said offline to a reporter that U.S. policy towards Taiwan will not change.  I am sure they don’t want to upset anyone in Taipei but I also it is not because they hold them is in awe for building the first worlds tallest building outside the US,  the Taipei 101 tower.

Incidentally my mate Micheal Zsang who has a prospering in software ands services business based on Shanghai tells me human rights in China are a non-issue. He has done well, as have most of his peers in the last 20 or so years and does not want or see value in any change.

My German pal Ule Behinger who enjoys the being a pseudo Chinese at his production plants there does well making  musical instruments. Zsang  over a beer there recently, pointed out to me that many other Asia countries have codes of conduct to not bag their infrastructure and leaders and they are good places to live too.

North Korea does not seem so hard either now they have stopped making their lethal fireworks.  But Taiwan is a tough one that has gone on since 1949 when Chiang Kai-shek did a runner with the family money and declared himself imperial ruler of all of China then used the cash to entice his mates to support him. China Mainland has been pissed off ever since and just wants their money back. Maybe only the Irish can help sort that out.

So who holds the balance of power now, I wonder? Some US Papers today like San Fransico Chroncle have reported the Chinese hosts are plainly more worried about their own sinking economy. But I like their observation of the tone that “This White House is headed in a new direction: eastwards”

Interesting too Chinese President Hu Jinato and U.S. President Barack Obama are scheduled to meet at the G20 meeting in London in April. It looks like Looks like it is your move Barack. Oh one thing is for sure . Like Hilary I think I will follow the money.

It seems Hilary has done a good job, Even in Indonesia she did well fielding issues including one about getting Barak back to pick up the lunch box he forgot when left there as a kid after spending  a fours years at school there.

As I conclude my reading, I thought I would just check out  the FOX News where I see Wall Street is buzzing about a prospect of Bank nationalizations. Wow, I guess they work on the weekend now and have got wind of some communist ideas Hilary has send back from the Chinese. How the wheel turns, even eh  for the mighty land of the free? General Macarthur would surely turn in his grave.

And talking about working on weekend: So do the US Treasury. Reuters have just reported their boss has just waltzed in and told then to start cutting taxes. How novel father Christmas comes in January now too. Or maybe it is a Chinese New year tradition.

It has has also restored my ongoing faith in the human nature, so I can continue to remain cynical of anything political.

This is sure better than watching super bowl. Good luck you  guys and keep up the good work.

…Roland F Chessman

Some have suggested CFO’s risk energy  is better placed to ensure economic fallout is less severe.I have to agree, many CFO’s have been focused on acquisition growth and leveraged efficiencies sometimes at the expense of fundamentals and the basics of risk management itself. Budgeting and expense management are vital but not the only issues that need to be managed as companies struggle to reduce their balance sheet exposures.

I note Dr Kitbamroong’s comment on my post last week entitled “How is Managing Risk a vital CFO role? ?” He made the point very succinctly saying,

“if  one of the daily activities of the CFOs were to monitor and execute risk management  then economies wouldn’t be so bad”.

Squeezing the orange till the skin breaks syndrome on consolidations may not have been all that smart either, as sell-offs are now all the go to rectify debt ridden balance sheets. With extraordinarily high prices having been paid, often for no more than market share based acquisitions, synergy clean-outs and less focused shared service SLA models have often been initiated to justify them and cut cost,s with many likely to fail to deliver the value now in the downturn. This is taking a huge toll on products, capability and good sense in risk management, as overstretched sales forces struggle to  meet their sales numbers at all costs with commercial awareness taking a back seat. All tbis too as they try to sell into confused, overpowered markets, who have also became more demanding and single minded, to focus on ROI, with often higly detaile,d but vaguely qualified business requirments and short term gain and sometimes very doubtful statements about benefits. And of course we all know the consumer and housing markets in the US and everywhere in developed nations all benefited, until it all come crashing down in late 2008 . As the accesses cause bank failures caused money for homes and consumer credit to dry up, the world’s biggest spenders then simply just stopped buying and the cards all started to fall.

Looking back with benefit of hindsight it is seems it was quite inevitable that problems would occur when overcooked demand drops started to kick in early to mid 2008. The risk issues are now clearly being exposed more and more as cover is sought. And as many “Card Pack” builders have already fallen with more likely to come as their reserves run out.

Exacerbating this, the global economy crunch on the consumer credit society that changed the fundamentals of investment multiplier theories in the cashless credit based societies of developed nation is now a large consideration. Consumers with a life style of living on credit in the comfort the future with pay for it, now have a issue to save cash just to survive with a double whammy that they need to pay off their credit card first.

So a US lead recovery is not so easy to understand especially as the double impact effect hits even more as business closures and more unemployment, now over 7% in the US, kicks in. The knock on effect of the economic malaise now endemic in all world economies, will likely metamorphosis differently as supply chains around the world change hands and traditional economies could be reincarnated elsewhere.

People like the small to medium operators and large CFO’s alike, need to get this point well with the likelihood of a long haul and potential W shaped recovery to come. Or worse even a deep U shape recovery with high likelihood we are still on the down side.

These who jumped on the band wagon in the good times and just took the money and trusted they would have it right before the bubble burst, are now paying the price. Hence restructuring, divestment and sell offs and prop-ups are becoming flavor of the month in key industries to fix balance sheets. CFO’s need to look at these issues very hard and do it quickly and too or risk perishing.

So the life of Riley is over as we know it. The power brokers in good shape are now seizing the opportunities with many waiting for more timely pickings to come.

In July last year I was invited to speak at a seminar where I was asked to deal with ideas on understanding and dealing with the dark shadows we were seeing them. In my research it seemed agility to have good information to react and control risk was a key But it was also apparent to watch what the Chinese were buying and move in those markets. For the providers of 60% of the world manufactured goods, there can be no question now about their intent. The Chinese see the opportunities and are talking them. They are literally grabbing control of markets that have evaporated by the developed nations forced abandonment of their excesses, which in turn has created a plethora of wounded and very cheap cash cows.

This of course is nothing new as China has been buying resources and commodities suppliers over recent years as it has cashed up on importing nations endless credit financed spending sprees for manufactured goods. The point is China is practiced at doing this now and is skilled and eager to ramp up their acquisitor efforts as they see opportunity to become the dominate economic leader controlling the world’s supply chains It may seem trite or na?ve to say this to ouch my point further, but it may be for no other reason to reduce their risk.

One example is a 19% take up in the RTZ sell down this earlier this month. RTZ is one of the world’s largest resource providers and key supplier to China. Another example headline today in the Wall Street Journal says “Chinese Companies Plan Europe Shopping Spree” and expands on their planned 2.3 Billion spend-up to take advantage of tumbling asset values in hard-hit Western economies” The article contributed by Steven Yang and Shen Hong also highlights China’s $25 billion loan to Russian energy companies in exchange for larger supplies of crude oil. These examples also points up the cashed up leverage position of China which pales into insignificance the combined US EU Aussie and other developed nations bailout money.

But even so at the small end it is people who will take risks we also need to rekindle and lead economies back being confidence at local levels.I am still convinced of the early advice I got to follow the money. But to do that we actually need people now with a combination of a sense economic reality, due diligence disciplines and sharp entrepreneurial skills, to be bullish more than ever as the balance of economic forces change in readiness for a potentially quite different recovery over considerable time.

The trick is now how do we get that under control and help keep business out of more trouble without selling off the farm. And to keep the money flow moving that makes it all work.

CFO’s need to look hard at this now to survive, while all this shakes out.

For business operators, CFO’s and investors alike there is clearly no simple or single answer for sure.